TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 6:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game, focusing on how many times they receive the ball. The outcome depends on whether each player meets or exceeds certain reception thresholds during the match.
All markets resolve based on the number of receptions recorded by specified players during the Miami vs Minnesota Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. For each market, if the named player records the specified number of receptions or more, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if that snap is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on the actual number of receptions recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for this event.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions as traders buy and sell contracts. You might find that this market adjusts more rapidly to news and developments – such as player injuries or weather forecasts – than traditional sportsbooks. Discrepancies can create opportunities for arbitrage, where traders profit from price differences.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders. The price of a contract representing a specific outcome (e.g., over/under a certain number of receptions) fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people believe an outcome is likely, the price of contracts for that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective probability assessment of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of receptions for each player will be sourced from official game statistics. The market will determine which side – over or under the specified reception total – is correct based on these verified statistics. Traders holding contracts on the correct side will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key receivers on either the Miami or Minnesota teams would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect passing offenses, could also move the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or adjustments to offensive strategies could also influence trader behavior. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to price fluctuations in this market.