TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:14 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in an upcoming American football game, focusing on whether specified players or units exceed predetermined fantasy point thresholds based on standardized scoring rules.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense/special teams units during the full Pro Football game (including overtime) between Miami and Minnesota originally scheduled for October 4, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for various statistical categories including passing/rushing/receiving yards and touchdowns, kicking performances, and defensive/special teams contributions such as sacks, interceptions, and points allowed. Players who do not participate or receive no fantasy-point value are treated as scoring zero. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of market expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. Each market individually assesses whether a specific player or unit surpasses their designated fantasy point threshold.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of participants, potentially differing from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by participants’ beliefs about the likelihood of different fantasy point totals. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly when public opinion diverges from expert analysis. Examining these differences can reveal insights into where the crowd believes sportsbooks may be over or underestimating the true probability of an outcome for this game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different fantasy point totals for the Miami vs Minnesota game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of whether the actual total will be above or below that level. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability of the corresponding outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final fantasy point total for the Miami vs Minnesota game, as officially recorded by a major fantasy sports provider, will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the standard scoring rules of that provider. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding key player injuries or changes in player status for either the Miami or Minnesota teams would likely cause significant movement. Unexpected announcements about playing time or strategic changes could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any updates on weather conditions that might affect the game’s scoring potential could impact trading activity. General shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in polls or analyst predictions, could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.