TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:07 PM EST
Kalshi
This event ties financial outcomes to the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game, using fantasy points as the basis for payout calculations. Participants can bet on whether a player's performance will result in a higher or lower payout, based on predefined scoring rules.
The event consists of multiple parallel scalar markets, each tied to a different player's performance in the same football game. For each market, the Yes contract pays $0.01 per PPR fantasy point scored by the designated player during the game, rounded to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capped between $0.00 and $1.00. The No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are determined using Sleeper's weekly standard PPR fantasy-point totals for the specified player. If Sleeper does not assign a fantasy-point figure for the week, the player is considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a Yes payout of $0.00 and a No payout of $1.00. All payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, and the markets resolve based on the actual fantasy points scored by each player.
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, biases, or simply variations in opinion. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the Miami vs Minnesota game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price will rise, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, increased selling pressure will lower the price.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final results of the Miami vs Minnesota game as reported by official sources. The specific outcome that triggers resolution will align with the market's defined options, determining which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand how this market will settle.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather forecasts could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in preceding games, or significant media coverage influencing public perception, can also drive price movements. Major announcements related to the teams or key players, such as changes in coaching staff or player trades, are likely to cause volatility. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to Oct 4, 2026.