TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 6:30 PM EST
Kalshi
The contest centers on which team or category achieves the first scoring play of the game. The result depends entirely on the sequence of scoring drives and whether any points are put on the board.
These markets determine which entity scores the first touchdown in the Miami vs Minnesota game on October 4, 2026. If the MIN Vikings D/ST, MIA Dolphins D/ST, or No Touchdown category scores the first touchdown, their respective market resolves to Yes. The No Touchdown market resolves to Yes if no touchdowns are scored in the game, with all other player markets resolving to No in that scenario. As with the previous event, participants must take at least one snap for the market to resolve based on gameplay; otherwise, it settles at the pre-game fair market price.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective belief about that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the most up-to-date information and expectations. The market dynamically adjusts as new information emerges, such as injury reports or changes in weather conditions, influencing the perceived likelihood of each player.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which player officially scores the first touchdown of the game, as determined by official game statistics. The official scoring play will be the determining factor, and any challenges or reviews will be considered as part of the final result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome reflected in their account balances following the official confirmation.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players, would have a substantial impact. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could affect the game plan and favor certain players. Unexpected starting lineup announcements or shifts in coaching strategy could also influence the perceived probabilities. Furthermore, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable sports analysts could sway market sentiment and cause price fluctuations.