TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 9:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Miami will win its professional MLS soccer game against DC United. Currently, Kalshi gives Miami a 99.0% probability of winning, with DC United at 1.0%. The market will resolve based on the result of the game originally scheduled for October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official game outcome. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the market resolves based on the final result reported after the game concludes on October 11, 2026.
The event involves three possible outcomes for the Miami vs DC United professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for October 10, 2026: Miami win, DC United win, or a tie—all determined after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Each market corresponds to one of these outcomes and resolves to 'Yes' if that specific result occurs. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as per the event rules. The markets are independent of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. This can lead to differences, especially when public perception diverges from expert analysis. Typically, prediction markets are considered to be more accurate than traditional polls or expert forecasts, but it's not always the case. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can reveal where the crowd sees value or disagreement with conventional wisdom regarding the Miami vs DC United match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Miami vs DC United match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that constantly adjusts based on new information and sentiment. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Miami vs DC United match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official result declared by the league organizers. The outcome will be determined by which team wins the match, or if the match ends in a draw. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 11, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either Miami or DC United would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also impact trader sentiment. Even weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is predicted for the match location, can influence the market. Finally, any significant news related to team management or internal conflicts could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.