TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 9:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates how many goals will be scored in an upcoming professional MLS soccer match between Miami and Cincinnati. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of total goals, determining whether the game will be high-scoring or more defensive in nature. The outcomes reflect various levels of offensive performance in the match.
These markets resolve based on the total number of goals scored in the Miami vs Cincinnati professional MLS soccer game scheduled for October 28, 2026, after the full 90 minutes of regulation time plus any stoppage time added by the referee. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from the goal count. Each market has a specific numerical threshold: if the combined goals from both teams exceed the threshold (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5), that particular market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets operate independently, allowing participants to assess different levels of scoring intensity in the same match. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the MLS or its governing bodies, and all league-related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market aggregates insights from many individuals. It's common to see initial discrepancies between the two, as sportsbooks may prioritize attracting action or incorporate factors not immediately apparent to prediction market participants. Over time, these odds tend to converge as new information becomes available and both markets react to it. However, differences can persist due to varying risk appetites and analytical approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes for the Miami vs Cincinnati match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust its predictions in real-time, based on the collective actions of traders.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final total goals scored in the Miami vs Cincinnati match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, as reported by the league or governing body. The total goals scored, including any goals scored during overtime, will determine the winning contract in this market. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi once the official results are available, and payouts will be processed accordingly.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either team would likely have a significant impact, as this affects their scoring potential. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the game's outcome and therefore the market. Furthermore, any updates on team formations, tactical approaches, or recent performance trends could cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Unexpected events during the match itself, like early red cards, could also lead to rapid price adjustments.