TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 9:38 PM EST
Kalshi
In the game between Miami and Cincinnati, success will be measured by the goal gap after the regular 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with various winning margins determining different outcomes, not accounting for extra time or penalties.
All four markets resolve based on the outcome of the Miami vs Cincinnati professional MLS soccer game scheduled for Oct 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A market resolves to Yes if Miami wins by more than 2.5 goals, Miami wins by more than 1.5 goals, Cincinnati wins by more than 1.5 goals, or Cincinnati wins by more than 2.5 goals. Each rule sets a distinct threshold for the victory margin, allowing for multiple possible resolutions depending on the size of the win for either team.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds to balance action and ensure profit, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of informed traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – this market often adjusts more quickly than traditional sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, with this market sometimes offering more accurate probabilities, especially closer to the event. However, sportsbook odds remain a useful benchmark for comparison.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Miami vs Cincinnati game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the game’s likely result.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Miami vs Cincinnati game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as determined by the governing body of the sport. Traders who hold contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The market’s resolution is independent of any pre-game predictions or analyses, relying solely on the official game result.
Several factors could significantly impact the Miami vs Cincinnati spread market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game’s conditions, could also move the market. Significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could influence trading activity. Finally, any late-breaking news related to team strategy or internal issues could also contribute to changes in the price of contracts within this market.