TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 4:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the point differential in a college football game between Miami (OH) and Central Michigan. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. If Central Michigan wins by a margin exceeding the specified threshold, the corresponding 'Central Michigan wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes; if Miami (OH) wins by more than the threshold, the corresponding 'Miami (OH) wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the outcome.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what is immediately available to sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on team statistics and expert opinions, this market allows a broader range of participants to weigh in, potentially leading to more accurate predictions as new information emerges. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments, biases, or simply the larger sample size of traders contributing to the prediction market. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread in the Miami vs Central Michigan game. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and informative forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual point difference between the Miami and Central Michigan teams at the conclusion of the game. The market will settle based on the official result published by the relevant sports authority. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game takes place. Any significant news regarding player injuries, coaching changes, or team performance could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Unexpected weather forecasts, particularly if they are likely to affect the game's conditions, could also play a role. Public sentiment, as reflected in betting trends and media coverage, can also contribute to price movements. Major announcements about team strategies or player availability leading up to the game are likely to be key catalysts for changes in this market.