TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 3:44 PM EST
Polymarket
This prediction group concerns the outcome of a college basketball game between the Miami-Middletown ThunderHawks and the IU Indy Jaguars on November 2nd. The market resolves to the winning team, or splits 50/50 if the game is canceled without a reschedule.
This event is for the CBB game between Miami-Middletown ThunderHawks and IU Indy Jaguars on November 2 at 11:00AM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
This event is for the CBB game between Miami-Middletown ThunderHawks and IU Indy Jaguars on November 2 at 11:00AM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ that can differ from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while prediction markets are driven by individuals wagering their own capital based on their beliefs about the game’s outcome. This market can sometimes offer more accurate probabilities, as traders have a financial incentive to be correct. However, sportsbooks have access to different information, such as injury reports and team dynamics, which can influence their odds.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict may diverge due to several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and information. Trading volume can also influence prices; a larger volume on one platform may lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific mechanisms for trading and order matching differ between Polymarket and Predict, contributing to potential price discrepancies. These differences create opportunities for arbitrage, where traders exploit price differences across platforms.