TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 10:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting whether Miami or North Carolina will dominate the third quarter of their college football game by a specific margin. Bettors can choose from various point spreads to wager on which team will secure a more decisive lead during that specific period.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between Miami (FL) and North Carolina exclusively during the third quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point spread threshold, with outcomes determined by whether the winning team exceeds the designated margin by more than the stated points. All markets exclusively consider points scored in the third quarter, disregarding any scoring from other quarters. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original scheduled start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official final result of that specific quarter. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market aggregates opinions from many individuals. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, as sportsbooks may prioritize attracting action on both sides of a bet, while this market focuses solely on the perceived probability of the outcome. Over time, these odds tend to converge as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the third quarter spread between Miami and North Carolina. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate beliefs may incur losses. This dynamic process leads to a market price that reflects the aggregated forecast of all participants.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread in the third quarter of the Miami vs North Carolina game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the actual spread will be settled at 100, while those predicting a different spread will be settled at 0. The resolution will reflect the official result as reported by the governing sports league.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Miami or North Carolina teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team strategies or coaching decisions could also impact the perceived probability of different spreads. Furthermore, public sentiment and expert analysis, if they shift noticeably, may influence trading activity and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market. Game-day performance and early scoring drives will also be major catalysts.