TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 6:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many points each team scores in an upcoming football game, allowing participants to speculate on whether specific scoring thresholds will be met. The outcomes depend entirely on the actual points scored by the Miami Dolphins and the Minnesota Vikings during their match.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified team scores more than a set threshold of points in the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Minnesota Vikings scheduled for October 4, 2026. If the team in question exceeds the stated point total, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The thresholds vary for each team, offering multiple levels of point totals to bet on. All markets are independent, and each has its own specific point threshold that must be evaluated against the final score of the game. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning with but sometimes diverging from traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market’s pricing is driven by actual money being wagered. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price on Kalshi will move accordingly. This difference can be an indicator of public sentiment or access to information not fully incorporated into sportsbook odds. It's common to see this market reflect a more nuanced view than initial sportsbook offerings.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and place bets, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The closer the event gets, the more volatile the price may become as new information emerges and traders refine their predictions. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the likelihood of various team total scenarios.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final team total—the sum of points scored by both the Miami Dolphins and the Minnesota Vikings—will be sourced from official game statistics. The market will settle to 100 if the actual combined score is greater than the highest contract price, and to 0 if it is less than the lowest contract price, with linear interpolation in between. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome based on the official results of the game.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Dolphins or the Vikings would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to high or low scoring, could also impact the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced by either team could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking news regarding team morale or internal conflicts could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.