TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether the Minnesota Vikings will win against the Miami Dolphins by more than 1.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives a 90.0% probability to that outcome. The market resolves based on the result of the MIA Dolphins vs MIN Vikings Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, as determined by the final score reported by official sources. Keep an eye on the game itself on October 4, 2026, as the final score will determine whether the Vikings exceed the 1.5-point spread and resolve this market to ‘Yes’.
All markets resolve based solely on the final score of the MIA Dolphins vs MIN Vikings Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each individual market resolves to 'Yes' if the stated team wins by more than the specified point differential; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' Markets are independent, and no partial credit or alternative outcomes are considered. The governing league's official score and any subsequent rulings (e.g., overtimes, forfeits) determine resolution. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with, but sometimes diverging from, traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, whereas this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of both markets. It's common to see prediction markets as a potentially more accurate indicator of the true probability of an event, as they aggregate a wider range of perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Dolphins-Vikings game. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic creates a self-correcting mechanism, driving the price towards a fair representation of the event's likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Dolphins-Vikings game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the relevant sporting authority. The market will determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual point spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Dolphins or the Vikings would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, major shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or prominent betting trends, could cause traders to adjust their positions. Unexpected developments related to team strategy or coaching decisions might also contribute to price fluctuations before Oct 4, 2026.