TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 6:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the total points scored by both the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings during the third quarter of their upcoming game. Participants assess whether the combined scoring will exceed various thresholds, offering different levels of difficulty and potential payout based on the expected scoring pace in that specific quarter.
All markets resolve based solely on the total points scored by both teams combined during the third quarter of the designated game. Each market has a specific threshold: if the combined score exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The thresholds range from 3.5 to 24.5 points, allowing participants to choose their level of risk and potential return. Only points scored during the third quarter count, and all markets are independent, meaning the outcome of one does not affect the others. The markets are not endorsed by the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, which can differ from sportsbook odds initially set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and marketing strategies into their lines, while this market is driven purely by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs about the game's outcome. It's common to see prediction markets converge toward what many consider the 'true' probability as more information becomes available and trading volume increases. However, discrepancies can persist due to differing risk assessments and information access.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of the 3rd quarter total being over or under a certain number. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the implied probability of the 'yes' outcome. As more traders buy 'yes' contracts, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its assessment of the likely outcome of the Dolphins-Vikings 3rd quarter.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official 3rd quarter total for the MIA Dolphins vs MIN Vikings game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, official score reported by the league, and will determine whether the 'yes' or 'no' outcome prevails. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or cover their losses based on the final result and their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Dolphins or Vikings would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable for a high- or low-scoring game, could also move the market. Additionally, major shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams’ offensive or defensive capabilities could lead to increased trading activity and price adjustments. Game day developments, such as early scoring drives, could also trigger substantial movement.