TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 6:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between the Miami Dolphins and the Minnesota Vikings specifically during the third quarter of their scheduled game. It focuses on determining which team can establish a significant scoring advantage within that single quarter, reflecting real-time competitive dynamics and strategic execution.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings during the third quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: markets for Minnesota winning by over 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, and markets for Miami winning by over 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these resolutions. No other quarters, overtime periods, or total game scores influence the outcome. The markets are independent, meaning each resolves separately according to its defined threshold.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to varying information and incentives. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the probability of different outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. While sportsbooks may initially move based on expert analysis, this market can react quickly to broader sentiment and potentially identify mispricings.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Dolphins-Vikings 3rd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the collective believes is the fair value. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the latest available information and the aggregated opinions of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the third quarter of the Dolphins-Vikings game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and the contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. The platform will verify the result against official sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Dolphins or the Vikings would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first and second quarters, and any adjustments to coaching strategies, may prompt traders to reassess their probabilities and adjust their positions accordingly.