TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 6:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the total points scored by both the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter of their upcoming game. Each market has a different threshold for the combined points that need to be exceeded for the outcome to be considered a success.
These markets evaluate whether the combined points scored by the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter of their game on October 4, 2026, exceed specified thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different point total threshold, ranging from 3.5 to 24.5 points. The outcome is determined solely by the points scored during the second quarter of play, with all other quarters and any potential overtime periods excluded from consideration. If the total points scored in the second quarter surpass the threshold designated for a particular market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The markets are independent, allowing for multiple thresholds to be met or none at all, depending on the actual scoring during the specified quarter.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. If a significant number of people believe the total points scored in the 2nd quarter will be higher than what sportsbooks predict, the price here will rise accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts closer to game time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced as a continuous probability distribution, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible total point ranges for the 2nd quarter. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of the actual total falling within that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust, creating a dynamic reflection of collective expectations. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people want to buy contracts for a particular range, the price goes up, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total points scored in the 2nd quarter of the MIA Dolphins vs MIN Vikings game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their purchased contracts align with the final result.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Dolphins or Vikings would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest a high-scoring or low-scoring game, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could shift expectations. Even public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.