TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 5:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates whether one team manages to win by a specific number of goals more than their opponent. The outcome depends purely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event consists of four distinct markets, each evaluating different goal-differential scenarios for the M´gladbach vs Karlsruhe DFB Pokal soccer match scheduled for October 27, 2026. All resolutions are based solely on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalty outcomes excluded. Market One resolves to Yes if M´gladbach wins by more than 2.5 goals. Market Two resolves to Yes if M´gladbach wins by more than 1.5 goals. Market Three resolves to Yes if Karlsruhe wins by more than 1.5 goals. Market Four resolves to Yes if Karlsruhe wins by more than 2.5 goals. Each market operates independently, and the secondary disclaimer clarifies that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league or its intellectual property.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their beliefs and trade accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Analyzing these differences can be valuable for informed decision-making, though it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts predicting an outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market constantly adjusts to reflect the latest information and collective sentiment of traders. The current price reflects the aggregated expectations of all participants regarding the spread in the M´gladbach vs Karlsruhe match.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the M´gladbach vs Karlsruhe match as reported by official sources. It’s important to note that the specific details of the spread will be the determining factor for settlement, and the market will close once a definitive result is available. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand how this market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in team form, or even weather conditions could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team tactics or starting lineups could also cause significant movement. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could shift the price, reflecting new information or a change in outlook. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the M´gladbach vs Karlsruhe match will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.