TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 5:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional DFB Pokal soccer match between M'gladbach and Karlsruhe. The market will determine whether M'gladbach, Karlsruhe, or neither (a tie) wins the match within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The result is based solely on the final score at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the result of the M'gladbach vs Karlsruhe professional DFB Pokal soccer game originally scheduled for October 27, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three distinct outcomes are possible: M'gladbach win, Karlsruhe win, or a tie. If M'gladbach or Karlsruhe wins the match within regular time, the respective market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the markets will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. The event specifically excludes extra time and penalty shootout results from consideration.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to be more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially closer to the event date. This is because prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. Sportsbooks may be influenced by factors like biases or marketing strategies. However, initial odds on Kalshi may differ from those offered by sportsbooks, reflecting differing initial assessments of the potential outcomes. As the event approaches, you’ll often see the odds on this market converge with those of established sportsbooks, assuming both are efficient.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the M´gladbach vs Karlsruhe match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants. The more a particular outcome is traded, the more its price will move, indicating changing expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M´gladbach vs Karlsruhe match as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding contracts for the correct outcome will be paid out according to the market’s pricing at the time of resolution. The process is designed to be transparent and objective.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 27, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either M´gladbach or Karlsruhe would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also impact market sentiment. News regarding tactical decisions, such as a change in formation or starting lineup, could also move the market. Finally, any significant public endorsements or expert predictions could influence trading activity and affect the price of contracts on Kalshi.