TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 1:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses potential score margins in an upcoming Bundesliga soccer match between M'gladbach and Hoffenheim. It focuses on determining whether either team will achieve a decisive victory by a specified goal differential. The outcome depends entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various goal-differential thresholds for both participating teams in a professional Bundesliga soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026. Resolution occurs solely based on the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct margin thresholds are evaluated: M'gladbach winning by more than 2.5 goals, M'gladbach winning by more than 1.5 goals, Hoffenheim winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Hoffenheim winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market matching the actual goal differential outcome will resolve positively, while all others resolve negatively. The governing body is the Bundesliga, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league or its intellectual property.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and often incorporate a profit margin, whereas this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook has mispriced the probability of an outcome, they can express that view by trading on Kalshi, potentially causing the market price to diverge from the sportsbook's initial offering. This dynamic can sometimes lead to more accurate predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting an outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all traders participating in the market. The spread is determined by the difference between the highest bid and the lowest ask, indicating the cost of transacting in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M´gladbach vs Hoffenheim match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand any potential factors that could influence the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 18, 2026. Key factors include any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either M´gladbach or Hoffenheim, changes in team formations, and weather conditions on match day. Unexpected announcements about team strategy or managerial decisions could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could influence traders’ beliefs and subsequently move the price of this market.