TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 12:39 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether over 0.5 goals will be scored in the Mexico versus Chile international friendly soccer match. Currently, the probability of over 0.5 goals being scored on Kalshi is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on whether more than 0.5 goals are scored in the game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as reported by the official match results. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the market resolves following the conclusion of the game originally scheduled for October 6, 2026, with final resolution expected by October 7, 2026.
The event resolves based on whether the total goals scored by both Mexico and Chile in their professional international friendly soccer match, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026, exceed specified thresholds. All markets consider only goals scored during the 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time added by the referee; goals scored during extra time or penalty shootouts are excluded from the resolution. Each market corresponds to a different threshold (over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5 goals), with the market resolving to 'Yes' if the actual total goals exceed that threshold. The resolution applies solely to the originally scheduled match date and time, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of related trademarks and branding.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights. As more information becomes available – such as team news or weather forecasts – the prices in this market can shift more rapidly than traditional sportsbook odds, potentially offering more favorable opportunities for informed traders. It's common to see discrepancies emerge as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As traders exchange positions, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among traders regarding the potential results of the Mexico vs Chile match.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total number of goals scored in the Mexico vs Chile match will be the determining factor. This includes goals scored during regulation time and any added time, but excludes penalty shootouts. The final score will be sourced from official match data and used to determine which contracts payout and at what value, based on the contract’s corresponding total goal outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Mexico or Chile would likely cause shifts in the probabilities. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the style of play, could also be a catalyst. Unexpected tactical announcements from either team’s manager, or even significant pre-match analysis from reputable sports commentators, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market as traders react to new information.