TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Mexico Grand Prix Main Race: Biggest Mover
kalshi

Who will be the biggest mover?

Volume:
$13,278

Liam Lawson

 - Kalshi

Liam Lawson - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 10:31 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Liam Lawson

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,907
N/A
N/A
$2,798
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Oscar Piastri

View
0%
21%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,219
N/A
N/A
$1,863
Settled
No
kalshi

Isack Hadjar

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,171
N/A
N/A
$954
Settled
No
kalshi

Sergio Perez

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,139
N/A
N/A
$963
Settled
No
kalshi

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,121
N/A
N/A
$909
Settled
No
kalshi

Fernando Alonso

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,036
N/A
N/A
$978
Settled
No
kalshi

Max Verstappen

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$963
N/A
N/A
$857
Settled
No
kalshi

Oliver Bearman

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$656
N/A
N/A
$625
Settled
No
kalshi

Gabriel Bortoleto

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$311
N/A
N/A
$294
Settled
No
kalshi

Carlos Sainz Jr.

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$310
N/A
N/A
$310
Settled
No
kalshi

Lewis Hamilton

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$299
N/A
N/A
$256
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryo Hirakawa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
No
kalshi

Pierre Gasly

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
$22
Settled
No
kalshi

Valtteri Bottas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
$19
Settled
No
kalshi

Franco Colapinto

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$8
Settled
No
kalshi

Arvid Lindblad

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Nico Hulkenberg

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Esteban Ocon

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lance Stroll

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Charles Leclerc

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lando Norris

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Alexander Albon

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

George Russell

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 23

Description

This market focuses on identifying which driver achieves the most significant improvement in their race position during the 2026 Mexico Grand Prix. It tracks the difference between each driver's starting grid position and their final classified position, rewarding the driver with the largest positive change.

Kalshi

Each market assesses whether a specific driver achieves the largest positive differential between their starting grid position and finishing position in the 2026 Mexico Grand Prix. The differential is calculated as the starting grid position minus the final classified position. Only drivers with both an official starting grid position and a numeric classified finishing position are eligible. If the race is stopped, postponed, moved, or cancelled, markets settle to a fair price or resolve to No if no official data is available. In case of ties for the largest differential, the Yes payout is divided equally among tied drivers, with No paying the remainder. All outcomes rely on official FIA data, with post-race penalties and classifications applied before expiration, and no changes from later appeals or adjustments.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Mexico Grand Prix mover market displays the current odds for each driver to be the biggest mover during the race. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these odds have changed over time, offering insight into trader sentiment. The dashboard also tracks the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $9,632, and the total volume traded to date, which is $13,278. This allows you to see which drivers are attracting the most attention and money from those predicting the race outcome.

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on expert analysis and may adjust them based on betting action, but they also incorporate a profit margin. This market, driven by individual traders on Kalshi, aims to represent the collective belief about which driver will make the most positions gained during the Mexico Grand Prix. Discrepancies between the two can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of both types of markets.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each driver being the biggest mover. As more people buy a contract for a specific driver, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived chance of that outcome. Conversely, selling contracts drives the price down. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that driver winning, allowing traders to express their views and profit from correctly predicting the race’s biggest mover.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The driver who gains the most positions during the Mexico Grand Prix main race will be declared the winner of this market. Official race results, as published by the FIA (Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile), will be used to determine the biggest mover. The resolution will reflect the net change in positions from the start to the finish of the race for each driver.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding driver performance, car upgrades, or weather forecasts leading up to the race could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about driver penalties or changes to the starting grid would also likely cause significant movement. In-race events, such as collisions or mechanical failures affecting key contenders, could dramatically alter the probabilities. Even pre-race qualifying results can provide clues and impact how traders value different drivers’ chances of being the biggest mover.