TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 9:40 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the AFL Women match between Melbourne Demons and Richmond Tigers, scheduled for October 16 at 4:15AM ET. This market will resolve to "Melbourne Demons" if Melbourne Demons is officially credited with the match win. This market will resolve to "Richmond Tigers" if Richmond Tigers is officially credited with the match win. The official final result will be used, including extra time when the competition uses it. If the official result is a draw, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to a team only if that team is officially credited with the win; otherwise it will resolve 50-50. If the match does not begin, is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Australian Football League results. If official results have not been published within 24 hours after the match concludes, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
This market refers to the AFL Women match between Melbourne Demons and Richmond Tigers, scheduled for October 16 at 4:15AM ET. This market will resolve to "Melbourne Demons" if Melbourne Demons is officially credited with the match win. This market will resolve to "Richmond Tigers" if Richmond Tigers is officially credited with the match win. The official final result will be used, including extra time when the competition uses it. If the official result is a draw, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to a team only if that team is officially credited with the win; otherwise it will resolve 50-50. If the match does not begin, is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Australian Football League results. If official results have not been published within 24 hours after the match concludes, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s efficiency is driven by the incentives for traders to accurately assess the probability of the Melbourne Demons or the Richmond Tigers winning.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official outcome of the AFL Grand Final between the Melbourne Demons and the Richmond Tigers, as declared by the Australian Football League. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency in determining the winning outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before the AFL Grand Final. Key player injuries to either the Melbourne Demons or the Richmond Tigers would undoubtedly shift the odds. Unexpected news regarding team strategies, coaching changes, or even weather forecasts for the match day could also cause movement. Public sentiment, as reflected in media coverage and expert analysis, can also play a role, though the market’s inherent wisdom often corrects for initial biases. Any significant developments impacting team performance will likely be reflected in trading activity.