TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 7:38 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of a college football game between Maryland and Ohio State, specifically analyzing how the fourth quarter unfolds. Each market assesses different point spreads to determine which team will dominate the final period of play.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the fourth quarter (excluding overtime) of the Maryland vs Ohio State college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point spread threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if Ohio State or Maryland exceeds the respective margin in their favor during that quarter. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, markets resolve to a fair price. Only points scored in the fourth quarter count toward resolution, and Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market allows anyone to participate and express their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. These differences can be due to varying levels of information, analytical approaches, or simply differing opinions on the likely result of the game. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. When more people buy contracts for a particular spread, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. Conversely, when more people sell, the price decreases. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price fluctuations throughout the trading period.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the fourth quarter of the Maryland vs Ohio State game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The specific spread that corresponds to the final result will determine which contracts pay out, and at what value. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Maryland or Ohio State teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift expectations. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as any late-breaking news related to team morale or internal dynamics, could all contribute to price movements. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also play a role in shaping the market’s direction.