TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 5:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first quarter of a college football game between Maryland and Ohio State. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold, allowing participants to bet on whether the winning team will exceed that margin within the first quarter alone.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first quarter of play in the Maryland vs Ohio State college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. For markets where Ohio State is the projected winner, resolution occurs if Ohio State leads by more than the specified point margin at the end of the first quarter. Conversely, markets projecting Maryland as the winner resolve if Maryland leads by more than the stated margin in the first quarter. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the official first-quarter result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty and preventing unfair outcomes due to unforeseen scheduling changes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of individuals trading contracts. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price of contracts representing that outcome will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts leading up to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring in the first quarter, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price of contracts will fluctuate, converging towards a consensus view of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first quarter spread of the Maryland vs Ohio State football game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, official result as reported by the governing sports authority. The platform will then determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by those contracts. All trading will cease once the outcome is officially known.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Maryland or Ohio State teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team’s playing style, could also cause shifts. Publicly released analysis from sports experts and updated betting lines from sportsbooks may also affect trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market. Unexpected announcements related to team strategy could also play a role.