TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 8:23 PM EST
Opinion
This market refers to the Ligue 1 match between Marseille (MAR) and Le Havre (HAV), scheduled for 2026-10-25 16:15 UTC. - MAR: If Marseille wins, the outcome is settled as "Yes"; otherwise "No". - DRAW: If the match ends in a draw, the outcome is "Yes". - HAV: If Le Havre wins, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise "No". Settlement will be based on the result at the end of regular time (90 minutes) plus stoppage time. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match is played and completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, the DRAW option will resolve to "Yes", while both MAR and HAV options will resolve to "No". The primary settlement source will be the official result published by Ligue 1. If the governing body or event organizers have not published the final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus from credible sources may be used instead. Note: Opinion will resolve strictly based on the first officially published result from the designated source. Any subsequent revisions will not affect this resolution. Source: https://www.ligue1.com/
This market refers to the Ligue 1 match between Marseille (MAR) and Le Havre (HAV), scheduled for 2026-10-25 16:15 UTC. - MAR: If Marseille wins, the outcome is settled as "Yes"; otherwise "No". - DRAW: If the match ends in a draw, the outcome is "Yes". - HAV: If Le Havre wins, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise "No". Settlement will be based on the result at the end of regular time (90 minutes) plus stoppage time. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match is played and completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, the DRAW option will resolve to "Yes", while both MAR and HAV options will resolve to "No". The primary settlement source will be the official result published by Ligue 1. If the governing body or event organizers have not published the final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus from credible sources may be used instead. Note: Opinion will resolve strictly based on the first officially published result from the designated source. Any subsequent revisions will not affect this resolution. Source: https://www.ligue1.com/
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a ‘vig’ or commission into their odds, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market probabilities and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities based on different methodologies and information sets.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast. Currently, the most favored outcome, according to traders on Opinion, is Le Havre wins.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Marseille vs Le Havre match, as declared by the governing football league. The final score and winning team will be used to determine which outcome resolves as ‘yes’ and which resolve as ‘no’. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to the match. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Marseille or Le Havre would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news events affecting team morale or motivation could also play a role, as could major upsets in other related football matches influencing overall perceptions of team strength.