TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 6:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Maringa and Ferroviaria, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Maringa versus Ferroviaria Brasileiro Serie C soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026. Resolution is determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty outcomes are excluded. Four distinct outcome thresholds are considered: Maringa winning by more than 2.5 goals, Maringa winning by more than 1.5 goals, Ferroviaria winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Ferroviaria winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents a separate condition under which the respective market would resolve positively. The governing rules emphasize that the event operates independently of official league affiliations, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the implied probabilities from both sources can reveal where the crowd and the experts disagree about the Maringa vs Ferroviaria match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they’ll bid up the price of contracts representing that outcome, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Maringa vs Ferroviaria match as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution. It’s important to monitor news and official sources as the event approaches to stay informed about any potential factors that could influence the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or shifts in coaching strategies could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-match analysis from respected sports commentators could also lead to price movements. Major upsets in related matches or broader trends in team performance are additional signals traders will be watching closely to adjust their positions in this market.