TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 2 at 10:00PM ET: If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs". If the Sharks win, the market will resolve to "Sharks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on spread/margin outcomes (win by X goals), while Polymarket settles on moneyline winner and total goals scored. The platforms use fundamentally different resolution dimensions for the same game.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi, you are predicting margin of victory (spreads). If you bet on Polymarket, you are predicting either the winner or combined scoring. A single game result can resolve differently across platforms—for example, a 3-1 Maple Leafs win resolves YES on Kalshi's Toronto >2.5 spread but does NOT resolve on Polymarket's Sharks spread market. Ensure your bet aligns with which dimension you want to predict.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves on margin of victory thresholds. Markets resolve YES if Toronto wins by over 2.5 goals, San Jose wins by over 1.5 goals, Toronto wins by over 1.5 goals, or San Jose wins by over 2.5 goals. Key quote: 'If Toronto wins by over 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If San Jose wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves on moneyline winner (Maple Leafs vs. Sharks), combined total goals (Over/Under 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), and spread (Sharks -1.5). These are separate markets with independent resolution criteria. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to "Over" if the Maple Leafs and Sharks combine to score 5 or more goals' and 'This market will resolve to "Sharks" if the Sharks win the game by 2 or more goals.'
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