TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 15 at 7:30PM ET: If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs". If the Senators win, the market will resolve to "Senators". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi settles on spread outcomes (goal-differential thresholds), while Polymarket settles on total goals (combined scoring) and moneyline outcomes. These markets measure different aspects of the same game and will not necessarily align.Hero Tip:
If you trade across platforms, note that Kalshi's spread markets (+/- 1.5, +/- 2.5 goals) resolve independently from Polymarket's totals markets (O/U 3.5 through 7.5 goals) and moneyline. A Senators win by exactly 2 goals resolves YES on Kalshi's -1.5 spread but does NOT determine any Polymarket total. Conversely, a 5-4 game resolves YES on Polymarket's O/U 4.5 but tells you nothing about Kalshi's spread outcomes. Trade each platform's markets on their own logic.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers four spread/differential markets that resolve based on goal margin (Ottawa wins by >1.5 or >2.5 goals, or Toronto wins by >1.5 or >2.5 goals). All four markets resolve YES if their specific margin threshold is met; otherwise NO. Key quote: 'If Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Toronto wins by over 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers six markets: one moneyline (Maple Leafs vs. Senators winner), and five totals markets (O/U 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 combined goals). Each totals market resolves Over if combined score meets or exceeds the threshold, Under otherwise. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Maple Leafs and Senators combine to score 5 or more goals' (O/U 4.5 example) and 'If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to Maple Leafs' (moneyline).
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.