TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens
Volume:
$323,447
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers an NHL game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens scheduled for March 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), spread betting (margin of victory), and total goals (over/under various thresholds).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's margin-of-victory markets use ambiguous 'over X goals' language without explicit inclusive/exclusive semantics, and collapse multiple scenarios into single Yes/No outcomes. Polymarket segregates moneyline, spread, and totals into distinct markets with clearer binary logic and explicit >= thresholds for totals.Hero Tip:
Interpret Kalshi's 'over X goals' as strictly greater-than (>), not >=. A 2-goal margin does not trigger Kalshi's >1.5 markets but does trigger Polymarket's -1.5 spread (Canadiens) and Polymarket's O/U totals at >= thresholds. Use Polymarket's explicit >= language for totals as the authoritative threshold definition.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Four markets conflate multiple outcome scenarios (Montreal win by >2.5, Toronto win by >2.5, Montreal win by >1.5, Toronto win by >1.5) each resolving to single Yes outcome. Uses 'over X goals' without explicit >= or > clarification. Key Quote: 'If Montreal wins by over 2.5 goals in the Toronto at Montreal professional hockey game originally scheduled for Mar 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Moneyline (Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens) resolves to winning team name. Spread (Canadiens -1.5) explicitly resolves to Canadiens if win by 2+ goals, else Maple Leafs. Totals (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) use explicit >= thresholds (5+, 6+, 7+, 8+ combined goals). Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Canadiens if the Canadiens win the game by 2 or more goals.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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