TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Maple Leafs vs. Blues
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 28 at 7:00PM ET: If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to "Maple Leafs". If the Blues win, the market will resolve to "Blues". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for identical over/under markets. Kalshi's markets resolve YES if the threshold is exceeded (e.g., 'over 7.5' means 8+ goals), while Polymarket's markets resolve Over if the threshold is met or exceeded (e.g., 'O/U 7.5' means 8+ goals), but the underlying phrasing creates ambiguity in how 'over' is defined across platforms.Hero Tip:
Both platforms ultimately resolve on the same game outcome (Toronto vs St. Louis, March 28, 2026), but verify the exact threshold interpretation for each market before trading. For example, if the final score is exactly 8 goals, both platforms' 7.5 markets should resolve identically (Over/Yes), but the wording differences mean you should confirm the specific market terms on each platform to avoid settlement disputes.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Aligned with Polymarket on core event and game date: Kalshi offers 8 over/under markets (2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5 goals) all resolving YES if the combined goal total exceeds the stated threshold. Uses phrasing 'If over X.5 total combined goals are scored... then the market resolves to Yes,' which is consistent with standard over/under interpretation.
- Polymarket: Aligned with Kalshi on core event and game date: Polymarket offers 4 over/under markets (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 goals) plus moneyline and spread markets. Over/under markets resolve to Over if combined goals meet or exceed the threshold stated in the description (e.g., 'O/U 5.5' resolves Over if 6+ goals scored). Additionally includes moneyline (Maple Leafs vs. Blues winner) and spread (Blues -1.5) markets not present on Kalshi.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.