TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 12:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the total number of goals scored during a professional English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Bournemouth. The outcome depends on whether the combined goals exceed specific thresholds. The match result is determined after 90 minutes of play plus any added stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The event evaluates multiple outcome thresholds for total goals scored in the Manchester United versus Bournemouth EPL match scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the combined goals exceed a specified half-goal increment (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5). All outcomes are determined solely by goals scored during the standard 90-minute regulation period plus any stoppage time added by the referee, with no consideration given to extra time, penalty shootouts, or other post-regulation proceedings. The rules explicitly note that the platform operating these markets—Kalshi—is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to the governing league or its intellectual property.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. As more information becomes available – such as team news or weather forecasts – and as the event draws nearer, the prices here may converge with or diverge from sportsbook odds, depending on how the collective intelligence of traders assesses the situation. It’s a fascinating comparison to observe.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the event's likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements can be influenced by various factors, including news updates, expert analysis, and overall market sentiment. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final total goals scored in the Manchester United vs Bournemouth match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official match result, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct total goals will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Manchester United or Bournemouth would likely cause price fluctuations. Tactical changes announced by either manager, or shifts in expected weather conditions on match day, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news regarding team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role. Furthermore, late-breaking analysis from sports commentators or changes in public perception regarding each team’s form could all contribute to price movements in this market.