TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:30 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Julia Grabher and Deborah Chiesa in the Mallorca, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Julia Grabher' if Julia Grabher advances against Deborah Chiesa. This market will resolve to 'Deborah Chiesa' if Deborah Chiesa advances against Julia Grabher. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Julia Grabher and Deborah Chiesa in the Mallorca, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Julia Grabher' if Julia Grabher advances against Deborah Chiesa. This market will resolve to 'Deborah Chiesa' if Deborah Chiesa advances against Julia Grabher. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of individual traders. If there's a significant discrepancy, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It's important to remember that both represent probabilities, but they are derived through different mechanisms and may respond to different information.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Grabher vs Chiesa match. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. This creates a dynamic pricing system, where the market efficiently incorporates available information and adjusts expectations accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official result of the Grabher vs Chiesa match as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or broader tournament upsets, might also shift expectations. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket itself can cause short-term price fluctuations, as can any significant external analysis or polling data related to the match’s potential outcome.