TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 10:51 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Tiago Cacao and Sergi Perez Contri in the Maia, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tiago Cacao' if Tiago Cacao advances against Sergi Perez Contri. This market will resolve to 'Sergi Perez Contri' if Sergi Perez Contri advances against Tiago Cacao. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Tiago Cacao and Sergi Perez Contri in the Maia, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tiago Cacao' if Tiago Cacao advances against Sergi Perez Contri. This market will resolve to 'Sergi Perez Contri' if Sergi Perez Contri advances against Tiago Cacao. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, ensuring a profit margin. This market, however, is driven purely by trader predictions, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, risk assessments, or simply the wisdom of the crowd effect. It's common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information than sportsbooks, as traders can instantly adjust their positions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand; if more traders believe Maia will win, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic and responsive pricing system.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Maia Cacao vs Contri match, as declared by the governing sports authority. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to determine the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result and their positions in this market.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even strategic announcements from either player could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in related matches, or even shifts in public opinion, could also play a role. Furthermore, large trades by influential market participants could create short-term price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to the Oct 18, 2026 resolution.