TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.1b

24H VOL:

$185,665,189

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2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,833,875,329

407,365

Markets across

40,470

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,365

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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VS.

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63%

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Maia: Patrick Schoen vs Michael Vrbensky
polymarket

Who will win Patrick Schoen vs Michael Vrbensky?

Volume:
$34,169

Completed Match

 - Polymarket

Completed Match - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 10:44 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Completed Match

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,870
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Maia: Patrick Schoen vs Michael Vrbensky

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,299
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Patrick Schoen and Michael Vrbensky in the Maia, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 7:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Patrick Schoen' if Patrick Schoen advances against Michael Vrbensky. This market will resolve to 'Michael Vrbensky' if Michael Vrbensky advances against Patrick Schoen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market refers to the tennis match between Patrick Schoen and Michael Vrbensky in the Maia, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 7:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Patrick Schoen' if Patrick Schoen advances against Michael Vrbensky. This market will resolve to 'Michael Vrbensky' if Michael Vrbensky advances against Patrick Schoen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Maia chess match tracks the current odds of each player winning, along with a price history showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, which indicates how much activity there has been in this market recently. Currently, the platform shows a strong preference for one outcome, but these probabilities can shift as new information becomes available and more traders participate. The total volume traded is also displayed, giving a sense of overall interest in the match.

Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant number of informed bettors believe a sportsbook is mispricing the Maia chess match, they can take the opposite side in this market, driving the odds closer to their perceived true probability. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before major events, as prediction markets can incorporate information faster.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. As more shares are traded, the price of each share adjusts to reflect the collective opinion of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome will drive up its price, indicating a greater perceived chance of success for that outcome in the Maia chess match.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Maia chess match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The platform will look to official tournament results and reporting to determine the winner. The resolution will be based on the officially declared winner of the match, as determined by the governing chess organization. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome of the event and their positions in this market.

Several signals could influence trading activity in this market before Oct 19, 2026. Any news regarding the players’ recent performance, health status, or preparation for the match could shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about the match conditions or format might also have an impact. Furthermore, analysis from chess experts and commentators could sway public opinion and, consequently, the odds in this market. Major upsets in other related chess tournaments could also indirectly affect trader sentiment and the pricing of the Maia chess match.