TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 2:49 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Thiago Monteiro in the Maia, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Thiago Monteiro. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Monteiro' if Thiago Monteiro advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Thiago Monteiro in the Maia, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Thiago Monteiro. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Monteiro' if Thiago Monteiro advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the views of many individuals with varying levels of knowledge. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the odds can highlight areas where the crowd believes there’s value or where sportsbooks may be over or underestimating a particular outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the match’s potential results. This allows for a fluid and responsive pricing system.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the match between Marco Trungelliti and Thiago Monteiro. The platform will rely on widely available and trusted sources to determine the winner, ensuring a transparent and accurate resolution process. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or even significant shifts in public opinion could trigger trading activity. Unexpected announcements about player form or tactical changes could also move the market. Furthermore, large trades by influential participants could create short-term price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals and events can provide valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of this market and potential trading opportunities.