TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 8:06 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Duje Ajdukovic and Goncalo Marques in the Maia, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Duje Ajdukovic' if Duje Ajdukovic advances against Goncalo Marques. This market will resolve to 'Goncalo Marques' if Goncalo Marques advances against Duje Ajdukovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Duje Ajdukovic and Goncalo Marques in the Maia, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Duje Ajdukovic' if Duje Ajdukovic advances against Goncalo Marques. This market will resolve to 'Goncalo Marques' if Goncalo Marques advances against Duje Ajdukovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. If a significant discrepancy exists between the implied probability on Polymarket and traditional sportsbook odds, it might signal that the crowd perceives information differently than bookmakers, or that one venue has identified a mispricing. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into potential value bets.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event's likelihood. The current volume traded provides an indication of the market's confidence in the various possibilities.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect the official result of the match between Duje Ajdukovic and Goncalo Marques as determined by the official tournament organizers. The platform will rely on publicly available and widely accepted sources to verify the final result and settle the market accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on team strategies could shift the perceived probabilities. Significant media coverage or expert analysis predicting a particular outcome could also drive trading volume and price movements. Unexpected results in related matches or tournaments might also impact sentiment. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to Oct 18, 2026.