TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Madagascar vs. Equatorial Guinea
Volume:
$189,967
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional international friendly soccer match between Madagascar and Equatorial Guinea scheduled for March 31, 2026. Markets across platforms are betting on the final outcome: whether Madagascar wins, Equatorial Guinea wins, or the match ends in a draw, all determined within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation handling differs between platforms. Kalshi provides no explicit cancellation clause across its three mutually-exclusive outcome markets, while Polymarket explicitly specifies that draw resolves Yes but team-win markets resolve No if the game is canceled with no make-up.Hero Tip:
Monitor cancellation risk closely. On Polymarket, the draw market is protected (Yes on cancellation) but team-win markets are penalized (No on cancellation). Kalshi's silence on cancellation creates settlement risk; clarify with the platform whether cancellation triggers postponement logic or a default resolution.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate markets with explicit cancellation handling. Draw resolves Yes if game ends in a draw OR if canceled with no make-up. Equatorial Guinea and Madagascar win markets resolve No if canceled with no make-up. Postponement keeps markets open. Resolution source: FIFA official statistics within 2 hours, or credible reporting consensus. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (draw) vs 'this market will resolve No' (team wins).
- Kalshi: Three separate markets (Tie, Equatorial Guinea Win, Madagascar Win) each resolve to Yes if their specified outcome occurs. No explicit cancellation or postponement clause provided. The logic is tautological: each market only specifies Yes resolution for its own outcome, with no fallback for cancellation or postponement. Key Quote: 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Equatorial Guinea wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Madagascar wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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