TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming soccer match between two rival teams competing in a professional league cup. The result will be determined by the final score after the regular period of play, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Participants can speculate on whether a specific team will win or if the game will end in a draw.
The event determines the winner of a professional soccer match scheduled for October 29, 2026, between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Hapoel Tel Aviv in the Premier League Cup. The market resolves based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Maccabi Tel Aviv, a win for Hapoel Tel Aviv, or a tie. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price. The event exclusively focuses on the result within the standard match duration, with no consideration given to post-regulation periods or tie-breaking procedures.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and analysis. As more information becomes available – such as team news or injury reports – the odds on Kalshi can move more quickly than those at traditional sportsbooks. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform sportsbooks in accuracy, especially closer to the event date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market's probability of that outcome occurring; a higher price indicates a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own research, analysis, and expectations, creating a dynamic and evolving price discovery process. The market aggregates this collective intelligence to produce a forecast for the Tel Aviv Derby.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Maccabi Tel Aviv versus Hapoel Tel Aviv match. The final score, as reported by official sources, will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders who correctly predicted the result will receive a payout based on the final contract price at resolution. It’s important to monitor official sources for the official result to understand the market’s settlement.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Maccabi Tel Aviv or Hapoel Tel Aviv would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on the day of the match, or even significant tactical announcements from either manager, could also move the market. Public perception and media coverage surrounding the Tel Aviv Derby can also play a role, influencing trading activity.