TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Fenerbahce
Volume:
$652,771
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming Euroleague basketball game, scheduled for March 24 at 1:30PM ET: If the Maccabi Tel Aviv win, the market will resolve to "Maccabi Tel Aviv". If the Fenerbahce win, the market will resolve to "Fenerbahce". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is fundamentally broken and unresolvable. Kalshi states that the market resolves to Yes if EITHER Maccabi Tel Aviv wins OR Fenerbahce wins, which means the market resolves Yes in all possible outcomes. Polymarket correctly specifies mutually exclusive outcomes (Maccabi Tel Aviv resolves to one outcome, Fenerbahce to another), with clear handling of postponement and cancellation scenarios.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution rule creates a logical contradiction where every possible game outcome (win for either team) triggers a Yes resolution, making the market unresolvable and potentially subject to dispute or cancellation. Polymarket's market is the only tradeable version with coherent resolution logic.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier (correct logic): Polymarket establishes mutually exclusive binary outcomes where the market resolves to the name of the winning team, with explicit handling for postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Key quote: 'If the Maccabi Tel Aviv win, the market will resolve to Maccabi Tel Aviv. If the Fenerbahce win, the market will resolve to Fenerbahce.'
- Kalshi: Outlier (logical failure): Kalshi's resolution rule states the market resolves Yes if Maccabi wins AND also resolves Yes if Fenerbahce wins, creating a tautology where every outcome triggers Yes. This violates basic binary market logic. Key quote: 'If Maccabi Tel-Aviv wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Fenerbahce Istanbul wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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