TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 3:58 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an Australia A League soccer match between Macarthur and Perth, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead over their opponent by specific goal differences. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Macarthur or Perth wins the match scheduled for October 17, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated: Macarthur winning by more than 2.5 goals, Macarthur winning by more than 1.5 goals, Perth winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Perth winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met for the respective team, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The resolution exclusively considers the standard match duration, with no account for extra time or penalty phases. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, which can sometimes differ from sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to express their view. Often, discrepancies arise due to differing information or interpretations of the same information. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges closer to the event. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The current price indicates the market's expectation of whether the spread will be as predicted, and traders can take positions based on their own analysis and risk tolerance. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Macarthur vs Perth match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the match, specifically the final spread. The platform will then determine the winning contracts and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution process and confirm the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team form, or tactical adjustments could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or referee announcements might also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity from informed traders could trigger price movements. Monitoring team news, expert analysis, and the overall trading volume on Kalshi will provide insights into potential catalysts that could impact the market.