TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 12:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between two teams competing in a league game. The result depends solely on which team wins after the standard playing time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. If neither team wins during this time, the match ends in a tie.
The event resolves based on the result of the Maastricht vs Heracles Almelo professional Eerste Divisie soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Maastricht wins, the 'Maastricht' market resolves to Yes. If Heracles Almelo wins, the 'Heracles Almelo' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The resolution excludes outcomes from extra time or penalty shootouts, focusing only on the result after regular time including stoppage minutes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the odds on Kalshi will shift accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a substantial amount of volume is traded, offering potential value for informed traders. Comparing the two can highlight differing perspectives on the event’s likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and opinions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a mechanism to ensure that the market price converges towards the true probability as the event approaches. Traders aim to profit by identifying discrepancies between their own beliefs and the market’s price, effectively betting on their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Dutch Eredivisie match will be used to determine the winning contract. The platform relies on publicly available and widely accepted sources to verify the outcome, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor news sources and official league results to stay informed about the event's progress and potential impact on the market. The resolution process is designed to be impartial and based on factual data.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or tactical changes could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about key players being unavailable, or positive/negative performance in preceding matches, would likely cause price movements. Major weather conditions, if applicable, could also play a role. Furthermore, significant shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or popular opinion, can also impact trading activity and, consequently, the prices on Kalshi. Monitoring these signals is crucial for traders looking to capitalize on market movements.