TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 7:05 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Toby Martin and Marco Furlanetto in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Toby Martin' if Toby Martin advances against Marco Furlanetto. This market will resolve to 'Marco Furlanetto' if Marco Furlanetto advances against Toby Martin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Toby Martin and Marco Furlanetto in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Toby Martin' if Toby Martin advances against Marco Furlanetto. This market will resolve to 'Marco Furlanetto' if Marco Furlanetto advances against Toby Martin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, which can sometimes differ from sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that the market perceives information differently than the sportsbook, or that there is an arbitrage opportunity. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities and are subject to change.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Martin vs Furlanetto match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the market's collective probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of a particular outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater perceived likelihood. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula match between Toby Martin and Marco Furlanetto, as determined by the tournament organizers. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final outcome of the match.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected upsets in other matches within the tournament could also impact perceptions of player momentum. Furthermore, major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in betting patterns or expert analysis, could lead to price adjustments. Even seemingly minor developments, such as weather forecasts impacting playing surfaces, could contribute to movement in this market.