TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 7:18 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Simone Macchione and Adriano Botta in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Simone Macchione' if Simone Macchione advances against Adriano Botta. This market will resolve to 'Adriano Botta' if Adriano Botta advances against Simone Macchione. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Simone Macchione and Adriano Botta in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Simone Macchione' if Simone Macchione advances against Adriano Botta. This market will resolve to 'Adriano Botta' if Adriano Botta advances against Simone Macchione. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying levels of expertise among participants. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available or public opinion shifts regarding the Macchione vs Botta match.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand; there are no external factors influencing the valuation of shares in the Macchione vs Botta match.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula match between Simone Macchione and Adriano Botta. The platform will verify the winner against widely available and trusted sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome of this contest.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 26, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or tactical adjustments announced by either Simone Macchione or Adriano Botta could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or even pre-match interviews expressing confidence or concern could also impact the odds. Furthermore, broader trends in the players’ recent performance or public perception of their capabilities will likely contribute to fluctuations in this market.