TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 8:02 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Michael Wright and Boris Sarritzu in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michael Wright' if Michael Wright advances against Boris Sarritzu. This market will resolve to 'Boris Sarritzu' if Boris Sarritzu advances against Michael Wright. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Michael Wright and Boris Sarritzu in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Michael Wright' if Michael Wright advances against Boris Sarritzu. This market will resolve to 'Boris Sarritzu' if Boris Sarritzu advances against Michael Wright. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy emerges between this market and sportsbook odds, it could signal that the crowd believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event. However, it’s important to note that sportsbooks may adjust their lines closer to the event based on new information, potentially narrowing any gap.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market efficiently incorporates all available knowledge regarding the Wright vs Sarritzu match.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official outcome of the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula tennis match between Michael Wright and Boris Sarritzu, as reported by a recognized tennis authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to ensure an accurate and impartial resolution. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding the players’ recent performance, injury status, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather forecasts at the tournament location, or even commentary from tennis analysts, could also impact the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal a shift in expectations, causing prices to move rapidly. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding how this market evolves leading up to Oct 26, 2026.