TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 11:05 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Berto and Manuel Mazza in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Berto' if Lorenzo Berto advances against Manuel Mazza. This market will resolve to 'Manuel Mazza' if Manuel Mazza advances against Lorenzo Berto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Berto and Manuel Mazza in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Berto' if Lorenzo Berto advances against Manuel Mazza. This market will resolve to 'Manuel Mazza' if Manuel Mazza advances against Lorenzo Berto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, while this market’s odds are determined by traders actively expressing their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. While sportsbooks may adjust their odds based on betting action, this market continuously updates with every trade, potentially leading to a more dynamic and responsive price discovery process. Examining both sources can provide a more comprehensive view of the anticipated outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where shares are bought and sold, adjusting the implied probability of each outcome. The price of a share representing a specific outcome reflects the market's belief in its likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can buy 'yes' shares if they believe the outcome will occur, or 'no' shares if they believe it won't. As more shares are traded, the price converges towards what the market collectively believes is the fair probability. This creates a dynamic pricing system driven by user activity and information.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula match between Lorenzo Berto and Manuel Mazza. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event result. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment. It’s important to monitor for official announcements regarding the match’s completion.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 13, 2026. Any news regarding the players' form, potential injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or location could also cause price fluctuations. Publicly released analysis from tennis experts or commentators could sway traders' opinions, leading to increased trading volume and price adjustments. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either player winning the match has the potential to move this market.