TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 9:01 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Leonardo Iemmi and Ruben Hartig in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Leonardo Iemmi' if Leonardo Iemmi advances against Ruben Hartig. This market will resolve to 'Ruben Hartig' if Ruben Hartig advances against Leonardo Iemmi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Leonardo Iemmi and Ruben Hartig in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Leonardo Iemmi' if Leonardo Iemmi advances against Ruben Hartig. This market will resolve to 'Ruben Hartig' if Ruben Hartig advances against Leonardo Iemmi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like marketing or house bias, while this market relies on individuals directly wagering on the outcome. If sportsbook odds significantly diverge, it could indicate a disagreement between professional oddsmakers and the crowd's assessment of the Iemmi vs Hartig match. Examining these differences can reveal valuable insights into public perception and potential value bets.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment regarding the Iemmi vs Hartig match.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula match between Leonardo Iemmi and Ruben Hartig. The platform will look to established sports news sources and official tournament records to determine the winner. Traders will then be paid out based on the final result and their holdings in the corresponding outcome shares.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 12, 2026. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also have an impact. Furthermore, major upsets in other related tournaments or matches might influence traders' perceptions of player momentum and skill, leading to adjustments in the market price. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in the Iemmi vs Hartig match's outcome probabilities.