TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 7:58 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Leonardo Iemmi and Carlo Cataldi in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Leonardo Iemmi' if Leonardo Iemmi advances against Carlo Cataldi. This market will resolve to 'Carlo Cataldi' if Carlo Cataldi advances against Leonardo Iemmi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Leonardo Iemmi and Carlo Cataldi in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 3:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Leonardo Iemmi' if Leonardo Iemmi advances against Carlo Cataldi. This market will resolve to 'Carlo Cataldi' if Carlo Cataldi advances against Leonardo Iemmi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of informed bettors believe a sportsbook is mispricing an outcome, they can influence the odds on Polymarket through their trades. This can lead to discrepancies, and sometimes, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional sportsbooks.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes of the Iemmi vs Cataldi match, and the price of each share reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people buy shares of a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment of the event’s potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Iemmi vs Cataldi match, as reported by the governing body for the sport. The platform will determine the winning outcome based on this official result. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in losing outcomes will not. It's important to monitor the official sources for updates as the event approaches.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions affecting the match could shift the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements about player form or fitness would likely cause price adjustments. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket by well-informed individuals could create momentum and move the market, even without new external information.