TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 9:34 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Michalski and Ivan Ivanov in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Michalski' if Daniel Michalski advances against Ivan Ivanov. This market will resolve to 'Ivan Ivanov' if Ivan Ivanov advances against Daniel Michalski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Michalski and Ivan Ivanov in the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Michalski' if Daniel Michalski advances against Ivan Ivanov. This market will resolve to 'Ivan Ivanov' if Ivan Ivanov advances against Daniel Michalski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their odds based on models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. These differences can arise from varying levels of information access, differing interpretations of data, or simply the influence of market psychology. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the event's likelihood. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand for these shares on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Daniel Michalski vs Ivan Ivanov match as reported by recognized tennis authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment. The exact timing of resolution may depend on the speed of official result publication.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player form, injuries, or changes in playing conditions could significantly shift the odds. Unexpected upsets in other matches leading up to the event might also affect perceptions of player momentum. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, could also play a role, though the market ultimately responds to traders’ willingness to buy or sell shares. Major announcements related to the tournament itself, such as changes to the schedule or venue, could also introduce volatility.