TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 4:50 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Manish Sureshkumar and Garrett Johns in the M25 Mumbai, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 11:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Manish Sureshkumar' if Manish Sureshkumar advances against Garrett Johns. This market will resolve to 'Garrett Johns' if Garrett Johns advances against Manish Sureshkumar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Manish Sureshkumar and Garrett Johns in the M25 Mumbai, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 at 11:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Manish Sureshkumar' if Manish Sureshkumar advances against Garrett Johns. This market will resolve to 'Garrett Johns' if Garrett Johns advances against Manish Sureshkumar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, allows traders to express their own beliefs, potentially leading to odds that more accurately reflect the true probability of an outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of trading activity. It's common to see prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than sportsbooks.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of each share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a specific outcome, its price increases, and the probability associated with it rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is entirely driven by supply and demand, reflecting the collective intelligence of the participants. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Mumbai match, as declared by the governing body. The platform will verify the result against publicly available sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final outcome. The process is designed to be objective and rely on established, verifiable data.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updates on team strategies could impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also cause shifts in the odds. Furthermore, significant bets from influential traders or large volume spikes could trigger price movements. Monitoring news sources and observing trading patterns will be key to understanding potential catalysts that could affect the probabilities in this market.