TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 11:06 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Florent Bax and Ruslan Serazhetdinov in the M25 Luanda, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Florent Bax' if Florent Bax advances against Ruslan Serazhetdinov. This market will resolve to 'Ruslan Serazhetdinov' if Ruslan Serazhetdinov advances against Florent Bax. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Florent Bax and Ruslan Serazhetdinov in the M25 Luanda, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 15, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Florent Bax' if Florent Bax advances against Ruslan Serazhetdinov. This market will resolve to 'Ruslan Serazhetdinov' if Ruslan Serazhetdinov advances against Florent Bax. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If sportsbook odds significantly diverge from those seen here, it could suggest differing opinions on the likely result of the Bax vs Serazhetdinov match. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be accurate.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome of the Bax vs Serazhetdinov match. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of a particular outcome is derived from the share price; a higher price indicates a greater perceived likelihood. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Bax vs Serazhetdinov match as declared by the governing sporting body. The platform will determine the winning outcome based on this official result, and shares will be settled accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the match result to understand how this market will be resolved.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before Oct 22, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or unexpected performance in preceding matches for either Florent Bax or Ruslan Serazhetdinov could shift trader sentiment. Public announcements about match conditions, such as the playing surface or referee assignments, might also have an impact. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the players’ relative strengths or the likelihood of a specific outcome could cause movement in this market.