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419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
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4,612
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:26 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Xiuyuan Ye and LIANGXUAN LIU in the M25 Luan, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Xiuyuan Ye' if Xiuyuan Ye advances against LIANGXUAN LIU. This market will resolve to 'LIANGXUAN LIU' if LIANGXUAN LIU advances against Xiuyuan Ye. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Xiuyuan Ye and LIANGXUAN LIU in the M25 Luan, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Xiuyuan Ye' if Xiuyuan Ye advances against LIANGXUAN LIU. This market will resolve to 'LIANGXUAN LIU' if LIANGXUAN LIU advances against Xiuyuan Ye. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their view. Discrepancies can arise from differing information, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular outcome. It's common to see prediction markets incorporate information faster than traditional sources, leading to odds that diverge from initial sportsbook offerings. Analyzing these differences can reveal insights into public perception and potential value.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its shares will climb. Conversely, if sentiment shifts towards a different outcome, its share price will increase while the others decrease. This dynamic pricing reflects the aggregated intelligence of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the M25 Luan match, as reported by a trusted source covering the competition. The platform will verify the result against publicly available data to determine the winning outcome. Traders who held shares in the correct outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at the time of resolution. It’s important to monitor the event for any updates or changes that could affect the resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or unexpected developments leading up to the M25 Luan match could significantly shift trader sentiment. Public announcements, expert analysis, and even social media discussions can all contribute to changes in the perceived probabilities. A strong performance by one player in a preceding match, or a shift in weather conditions, could also move the market. Keeping abreast of these signals is crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.